tea.mathoverflow.net - Discussion Feed (What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?)

voloch comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8928)

voloch — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 06:22:28 -0700

What happens to the data if you split it in two groups, those that would have been eligible in the next congress and those that would not?

Mariano comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8927)

Mariano — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 04:21:58 -0700

@Charles, 52 is larger than 30, and 30 is a Large Number ™.

Dougy comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8919)

Dougy — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 22:40:19 -0700

Yep, sorry... my slip-up (: So the data does support the claim that your birthdate modulo 4 makes a difference. [and it seems I've got pretty close to the maximum probability]

I think it would be quite a significant effect, since research is usually conducted at an exponential rate -- you start off slow, then afterwards, once you develop an understanding of a topic, it takes you significantly less time reuse knowledge of that topic.

Charles Rezk comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8916)

Charles Rezk — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 20:05:33 -0700

I think the idea is that someone born on December 31, 2001 is not eligible to win a Fields at the 2042 ICM, whereas someone born on January 1, 2002 is eligible. So it seems that having a 1 mod 4 birthyear is a disadvantage compared to a 2 mod 4, and the evidence Cam gave is certainly consistent with that. (But how meaningful is the sample?)

Noah Snyder comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8915)

Noah Snyder — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 19:54:53 -0700

Wait I thought the most disadvantaged were 1 mod 4 and 0 mod 4? Because ICMs happen in years that were 2 mod 4.

Steve Huntsman comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8911)

Steve Huntsman — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 18:42:36 -0700

Guess it's not like hockey players born in January... http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=merron/081208

Dougy comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8910)

Dougy — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 18:08:33 -0700

Thanks Scott 1. I was born in March (2 mod 4)... awww :( @Scott 2, I guess this is the mathematics equivalent of "not programming related".

Curiously, that data suggests that the most disadvantaged years (2 and 3 (mod 4)) have the most winners! I would have thought an extra few years would have played a larger role.

Cam McLeman comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8899)

Cam McLeman — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 13:00:11 -0700

I couldn't help myself.

Of the 52 winners, I count:

11 with 0 mod 4 birthyears
10 with 1 mod 4 birthyears
15 with 2 mod 4 birthyears
16 with 3 mod 4 birthyears

Harry Gindi comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8892)

Harry Gindi — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 10:34:38 -0700

Better on meta than on actual MO =p.

Scott Morrison comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8886)

Scott Morrison — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 09:25:24 -0700

Also, this is off-topic. :-)

Scott Carnahan comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8884)

Scott Carnahan — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 06:36:15 -0700

The deadline is January 1 of a 2 mod 4 year. If you were born in December of a 1 mod 4 year (like Oded Schramm), you may have a bit of a disadvantage. All of the birthdate information of past winners you need is available on Wikipedia, so you are welcome to analyze the distribution of ages.

Dougy comments on "What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?" (8883)

Dougy — Thu, 09 Sep 2010 06:13:55 -0700

I'm curious... if you must be less than 40 to win a Fields medal, you could be far worse off if your 40-th birthday happened to occur just before the ICM (every four years). Is there any regulations to resolve this problem? Or, is it the case that if you were born early in the year Y where Y = 2 (mod 4), then you get roughly three years less to earn the Fields medal than those with Y = 3 (mod 4)?