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Community: What effect does your birth year (mod 4) have on your chances of winning a Fields medal?

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    • CommentAuthorDougy
    • CommentTimeSep 9th 2010
     
    I'm curious... if you must be less than 40 to win a Fields medal, you could be far worse off if your 40-th birthday happened to occur just before the ICM (every four years). Is there any regulations to resolve this problem? Or, is it the case that if you were born early in the year Y where Y = 2 (mod 4), then you get roughly three years less to earn the Fields medal than those with Y = 3 (mod 4)?
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    The deadline is January 1 of a 2 mod 4 year. If you were born in December of a 1 mod 4 year (like Oded Schramm), you may have a bit of a disadvantage. All of the birthdate information of past winners you need is available on Wikipedia, so you are welcome to analyze the distribution of ages.

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    Also, this is off-topic. :-)

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    Better on meta than on actual MO =p.

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    I couldn't help myself.

    Of the 52 winners, I count:

    11 with 0 mod 4 birthyears
    10 with 1 mod 4 birthyears
    15 with 2 mod 4 birthyears
    16 with 3 mod 4 birthyears
    • CommentAuthorDougy
    • CommentTimeSep 9th 2010
     
    Thanks Scott 1. I was born in March (2 mod 4)... awww :( @Scott 2, I guess this is the mathematics equivalent of "not programming related".

    Curiously, that data suggests that the most disadvantaged years (2 and 3 (mod 4)) have the most winners! I would have thought an extra few years would have played a larger role.
  7.  
    Guess it's not like hockey players born in January... http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=merron/081208
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    Wait I thought the most disadvantaged were 1 mod 4 and 0 mod 4? Because ICMs happen in years that were 2 mod 4.
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    I think the idea is that someone born on December 31, 2001 is not eligible to win a Fields at the 2042 ICM, whereas someone born on January 1, 2002 is eligible. So it seems that having a 1 mod 4 birthyear is a disadvantage compared to a 2 mod 4, and the evidence Cam gave is certainly consistent with that. (But how meaningful is the sample?)
    • CommentAuthorDougy
    • CommentTimeSep 9th 2010
     
    Yep, sorry... my slip-up (: So the data does support the claim that your birthdate modulo 4 makes a difference. [and it seems I've got pretty close to the maximum probability]

    I think it would be quite a significant effect, since research is usually conducted at an exponential rate -- you start off slow, then afterwards, once you develop an understanding of a topic, it takes you significantly less time reuse knowledge of that topic.
    • CommentAuthorMariano
    • CommentTimeSep 10th 2010 edited
     

    @Charles, 52 is larger than 30, and 30 is a Large Number ™.

    • CommentAuthorvoloch
    • CommentTimeSep 10th 2010
     
    What happens to the data if you split it in two groups, those that would have been eligible in the next congress and those that would not?

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